As of March 2025, the United States is grappling with an unprecedented egg shortage, with prices soaring to a record high of $6.23 per dozen.
This problem is mainly the consequence of a severe avian influenza outbreak that has decimated poultry populations, coupled with supply chain disruptions and heightened demand.
Main Takeaways
- Record-High Egg Prices: As of March 2025, egg prices in the U.S. reached a record price, driven by a severe avian influenza outbreak and supply chain disruptions.
- Bird Flu Impact: The H5N1 avian influenza led to the culling of over 30 million egg-laying hens, reducing egg production, especially in major producing states like Iowa and Ohio.
- Supply Chain and Market Dynamics: The reduced flock size disrupted the supply chain, causing delays and shortages. Meanwhile, companies like Cal-Maine Foods reported tripled profits, prompting antitrust investigations into potential price gouging.
- USDA Control Measures: The USDA’s strict culling protocols require entire flocks to be culled if a single bird tests positive for bird flu. Repopulating these flocks is time-consuming, and recent staffing reductions at the USDA have hindered effective outbreak responses.
- Short-Term Outlook: While wholesale egg prices have begun to decline, retail prices remain high due to lagging adjustments and increased demand during the Easter season.
- Long-Term Strategies: The USDA has invested $1 billion to combat avian flu, including funds for biosecurity, financial relief for farms, and vaccine development. The U.S. is also importing eggs from countries like Turkey to supplement domestic supply.
- Egg Alternatives: Consumers are turning to plant-based substitutes such as aquafaba, flaxseed meal, chia seeds, and silken tofu. Additionally, protein-rich foods like Greek yoghurt, cottage cheese, and nuts are being used as dietary alternatives.
Photo By: Ekaterina Ershova
What Is Causing the Egg Shortage?
Primary Cause – Bird Flu Outbreak
The ongoing egg shortage in the United States is mostly driven by the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, more specifically, the H5N1 strain of this virus.
The virus is highly contagious, and very strict and severe measures are normally implemented by local governments to avoid spreading the disease.
One of the most common measures is the culling of entire flocks. In the U.S., the virus has led to the culling of over 30 million egg-laying hens in the first months of 2025 alone. These numbers are nearly the same as the total poultry number culled in all of 2024. Mass culling has significantly reduced the number of egg-laying flocks, leading to decreased egg production and subsequent shortages.
The impact has been particularly severe in major egg-producing states like Iowa and Ohio. Iowa is the nation’s leading egg producer and has suffered substantial losses, with more than 12.1 million poultry birds affected in Sioux County alone since November 2023.
Ohio, another top egg-producing state, has also been heavily impacted, with nearly 15 million birds culled.
Photo Of: H5N1
Secondary Factors Contributing to the U.S. Egg Shortage
Supply Chain Disruptions
The culling of all these million egg-laying hens has reduced the national flock size as a consequence of reduced egg production. This reduction has been felt very badly by the entire supply chain, and the strain caused delays and shortages in egg availability, particularly during periods of high demand like holidays.
Consumers have faced challenges accessing eggs, both in retail and more widely in restaurants. Some retailers have even implemented limits to purchasing eggs, and some restaurants have increased their prices due to higher production costs.
Market Dynamics and Corporate Profits
Despite the supply chain problems, major egg producers have still reported substantial increases in their profits.
Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg producer in the U.S., reported that its net income tripled compared to the previous year, reaching $1 billion in windfall profits over the first three quarters of its financial year.
This profit increase has raised concerns in consumer associations because they claim it may be the consequence of potential price gouging. Cal-Maine is a large producer, and they have several farms and flocks. None of them have been affected by outbreaks during this period. The Department of Justice has initiated an antitrust investigation into the company’s pricing practices to determine if the price hikes were justified or exploitative.
The market dynamics of eggs in the U.S. suggest that while the avian flu outbreak initiated the egg shortage, corporate strategies and pricing decisions have played a significant role in sustaining high egg prices.
The combination of supply chain disruptions and potential market manipulation has intensified the impact on consumers, with increased scrutiny of industry practices.
Bird Flu Control Approach
Culling Protocols
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is the body responsible for deciding and enforcing the policy to control the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
This policy can have very strict measures. When a single bird in a commercial flock tests positive, the entire flock is culled within 24 to 48 hours to mitigate the risk of virus transmission.
These measures are unfortunately necessary also due to the fact that the number of chickens in commercial flocks can be very high, and this allows viruses, when present, to replicate very effectively and in massive numbers.
Infectious diseases are exacerbated in intensive farming conditions, and the culling of the animals is the only way to mitigate the risk of important spread.
Repopulation Challenges
Rebuilding the hen population on these farms, from a commercial point of view, must be done swiftly to avoid loss of income, and it is also a time-intensive process.
However, from a disease control standpoint, when you have a known area where the virus is circulating, other control measures may be implemented, such as restricting the movement of poultry.
Pullets, or young hens, begin laying eggs around 18 weeks of age.
Areas with several cases of Avian influenza are also areas where there is a high demand for new laying birds.
These situation paired with the restrictions in place to control the disease may make the restoring process to full production capacity very time-consuming, taking up to 80 weeks, also considering that farms need to stagger the ages of hens to ensure a consistent egg supply.
The sudden demand for replacement birds has also led to a shortage of pullets, further delaying recovery.
Labor and Policy Issues
Recent staffing reductions at the USDA have also impacted the agency’s ability to respond effectively to the bird flu outbreak. Several key employees involved in bird flu testing and response were laid off as part of broader federal workforce cuts. This situation has slowed laboratory response times and compromised the consistency of disease-tracking efforts. The USDA is now attempting to rehire some of the dismissed staff to bolster its response capabilities.
Collectively, these factors, strict culling protocols, lengthy repopulation timelines, and reduced federal response capacity have all contributed to the ongoing egg shortage in the United States.
When Will the Egg Shortage End?
Short-Term Outlook
The U.S. egg market is beginning to show signs of recovery, but consumers may need to wait a bit longer for noticeable relief at the checkout.
Wholesale Prices Are Falling
Wholesale egg prices have recently experienced a decline. As of mid-March 2025, prices dropped nearly 50% from their peak, with New York wholesale prices falling from $8.53 to $4.08 per dozen.
This decrease is attributed to the absence of new bird flu outbreaks and the implementation of the USDA’s five-pronged strategy to combat avian influenza and stabilise the egg market.
Retail Prices Lag Behind
Despite the drop in wholesale prices, retail prices have been slower to follow.
In March, the average retail price for a dozen eggs was $6.23, a record high. The time it takes for wholesale price changes to be reflected at the retail level, often up to three weeks, is the main reason for this situation. Retailers may also be cautious in reducing prices quickly due to their concerns about potential future outbreaks and how they will be handled.
Easter Demand Influences Prices
The Easter holiday, falling on April 20 in, 2025, traditionally sees increased demand for eggs. The high demand may keep prices elevated, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has indicated that while prices may remain high through Easter, relief is anticipated afterwards as demand decreases and supply continues to recover.
In summary, while the egg market is on a path to stabilisation, consumers may not see significant price reductions until after the Easter holiday, as the effects of wholesale price drops gradually influence retail pricing.
Photo By:ElasticComputeFarm
Long-Term Considerations for Ending the U.S. Egg Shortage
USDA Initiatives: A $1 Billion Investment to Combat Avian Flu
In February 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a comprehensive $1 billion strategy aimed at curbing the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza, aiming to protect the poultry industry and try to stabilise egg prices.
These measures include up to $500 million in funds to increase biosecurity levels, $400 million in financial relief for affected farms, and $100 million dedicated to vaccine development.
Photo Of: Bird Flu
Import Strategies: Supplementing Domestic Supply
To address the immediate shortfall in egg production, the U.S. has turned to international partners.
Turkey has begun exporting approximately 15,000 tonnes (33 million pounds) of eggs to the United States, with shipments expected to continue through July 2025.
Market Predictions: Anticipated Price Volatility
Despite these efforts, the USDA forecasts continued volatility in egg prices. Projections indicate that egg prices could increase by 57.6% in 2025, with a prediction interval ranging from 31.1% to 91.5%. This anticipated fluctuation underscores the challenges in stabilising the market and the importance of the USDA’s comprehensive approach to addressing both supply and demand factors.
In summary, while the USDA’s substantial investment and import strategies are critical steps toward resolving the egg shortage, consumers may continue to experience price fluctuations in the near term as the industry works toward recovery.
Are There Any Alternatives to Eggs Due to the Shortage?
The ongoing egg shortage has prompted consumers to explore various alternatives to traditional eggs.
These substitutes not only address the immediate scarcity but also cater to dietary preferences and ethical considerations.
Plant-Based Substitutes
- Aquafaba: The liquid from canned chickpeas, aquafaba serves as an excellent egg white substitute, especially in baking. Approximately three tablespoons of aquafaba can replace one whole egg.
- Flaxseed Meal: Combining one tablespoon of ground flaxseed with 2.5 tablespoons of water creates a “flax egg,” which can replace one egg in recipes, particularly baked goods.
- Chia Seeds: Similar to flaxseed, mixing one tablespoon of chia seeds with three tablespoons of water yields a gel-like consistency that works well as an egg substitute in baking.
- Silken Tofu: Blending 1/4 cup of silken tofu can replace one egg, providing moisture and density to baked items like brownies and muffins.
Dietary Adjustments
Beyond direct egg replacements, incorporating protein-rich foods can help maintain nutritional balance:
- Greek Yogurt: A 7-ounce (200-gram) serving offers approximately 20 grams of protein, making it a good source.
- Cottage Cheese: Cottage cheese is low in fat and high in protein. Cottage cheese provides about 14 grams of protein per serving, along with essential nutrients like vitamin B12 and selenium.
- Nuts and Seeds: Almonds, peanuts, and sunflower seeds are excellent plant-based protein sources. For instance, peanuts offer approximately 9.5 grams of protein per 1/4 cup serving.
Conclusion
The egg shortage in the United States is the result of a complex mix of factors, with the H5N1 avian flu outbreak being the driving reason.
Mass culling of infected flocks, supply chain disruptions, corporate pricing dynamics, and limitations in disease response have all contributed to record-high egg prices and limited availability across the country.
While there are early signs of recovery—particularly in falling wholesale prices—the impact at the retail level remains delayed, and heightened seasonal demand continues to keep prices elevated. The USDA’s $1 billion response plan, combined with increased imports and long-term investments in biosecurity and vaccine development, offers hope for stabilisation. However, consumers should anticipate continued volatility throughout 2025.
In the meantime, many are adapting by exploring plant-based egg substitutes and alternative sources of protein. These dietary shifts not only help bridge the gap during the shortage but also reflect a growing trend toward diversified food choices.
The timeline for a full resolution will depend on how effectively the USDA and the industry can control future outbreaks, replenish flocks, and restore consumer trust in a more resilient and transparent egg supply chain.
